Las discontinuidades y los saltos sorpresivos
por Alberto Levy | 17 de Julio de 2008 | Competitividad
En los medios altamente competitivos, los cambios no son más de lo mismo, continuaciones de tendencias históricas ni repeticiones del ayer. Son saltos hacia estados nuevos imposibles de pronosticar. Estados en los que el equilibrio precario y provisorio que se configuró no tiene ninguna relación con el equilibrio que se fue. Esto es lo que pasó en todos los sectores de la economía mundial. No es sólo teoría.
RECUERDE: Invente por lo menos el escenario más probable, el mejor y el peor. De esto depende la calidad de la estrategia!!!
- ¿Qué se estará produciendo en este momento que haga que se disipe el “estado de las cosas” en su mercado o en su cluster y —de repente— todo cambie?
- ¿Qué quiere decir que su mercado esté en nuevo equilibrio?
- ¿Qué cambiaría?
- ¿Qué se mantendría igual?
- ¿Cómo sería la tecnología?
- ¿Cómo sería la competencia?
- ¿Quién sería líder y por qué?
- ¿Qué demandarían los clientes finales?
- ¿Qué harían los proveedores?
- ¿Y los distribuidores?
- ¿Cuáles serían los productos sustitutivos?
- ¿Y las fuentes de financiación?
- ¿Y los determinantes principales de sus costos?
- ¿Cuáles serían los procesos de difusión y de contagio?
- ¿Qué mecanismos internos de su mercado o de su cluster y/o de su empresa harían que las cosas tendieran a regresar al equilibrio anterior?
- ¿Cómo debería ser el comportamiento gerencial, la forma de resolución de problemas y la manera de tomar decisiones?
- ¿Qué me estoy olvidando?
La mayoría de los problemas que tenemos hoy son consecuencia de decisiones que hemos tomado ayer, creyendo que se trataba de soluciones correctas. Toda decisión tiene un impacto en el futuro. Cuanto más importante es la decisión, menos información y más ambigüedad tenemos para tomarla. Sino, no sería “importante”. Si tuviéramos toda la información necesaria, la podría tomar una computadora y a nosotros nos podría reemplazar un cadete. La creación de valor es el premio al riesgo de innovar. Nos pagan por manejar el miedo. Hagamos un pequeño ejercicio.
- ¿Qué decisión importante está por tomar hoy?
- ¿Qué cosas van a cambiar como consecuencia de tomarla?
- ¿Qué efectos no deseados pueden desatarse?
- ¿Qué información le falta?
- ¿Qué cosas no tuvo en cuenta?
- ¿Cómo sería la lista de supuestos y creencias y experiencias y mitos y pálpitos y automatizaciones y precondicionamientos y visiones-túnel y valores culturales y actitudes que —sabiéndolo o no— usted tuvo en cuenta para decidir?














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Concuerdo con la idea de crear escenarios futuros. En un contexto de incertidumbre y de cambio continuo, la predicción exacta resulta imposible, y por lo tanto, debe adoptarse una herramienta amplia para conceptualizar el futuro. La creación de escenarios es una alternativa viable, dado que permite construir, en función de la información limitada que se posee y de las expectativas propias y ajenas, varias posibilidades que pueden llegar a plantearse el día de mañana.
A su vez, me parece interesante la idea de que una decisión es importante si hay menos información y más ambigüedad y que a los directivos se les paga por manejar el miedo. Es una frase muy reveladora que da pie para la reflexión, al igual que las preguntas que le siguen en el artículo.
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